Game Theory 101: The Complete Textbook by William Spaniel

Author:William Spaniel [Spaniel, William]
Language: eng
Format: epub, azw3
Published: 2014-05-04T04:00:00+00:00

2.5.1: Civil War

Civil wars rarely end in negotiated settlements; normally, the sides fight each other until one completely militarily defeats the other. Commitment problems explain why.

Suppose some rebels are fighting a successful revolution. The dictator faces a dilemma. He could surrender and save his country from a lot of bloodshed, or he can gamble and hope the war turns in his favor. If successful, he crushes the opposition. If he fails, the rebel leaders take over the country. At that point, or if the dictator concedes at the start, the new rebel government has to decide whether to forgive the dictator or execute him.

Let’s look at the extensive form of the interaction. Notice this game introduces two new features: nature (N) and random moves:

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